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Poll Results: Predicting 1st Quarter Sales

Filed under: Poll Results

Hmmm, I don’t know what to make of the latest poll results on ASICentral. Either we’re all relentlessly pessimistic, or wearing rose-colored glasses because nearly 50% of the 431 votes cast were for two answers on extreme opposite ends of the spectrum pertaining to the following question:

How do you expect your Q1 2009 sales to compare to Q1 2008?

With 7 answer options as follows:

  • Decrease more than 10%
  • Increase more than 10%
  • Decrease 6%-10%
  • Increase 6%-10%
  • Decrease 1%-5%
  • Increase 1%-5%
  • Stay the same

With the economy in recession, I fully expected the results to lean toward the negative, and they do, but they also lean toward the positive as well. Most respondents, 30.39% (131 votes), feel that 1st quarter 2009 sales will decrease more than 10% when compared to 1st quarter 2008. However, the second most respondents, 16.01% (69 votes), feel that sales will increase more than 10%! I realize that the negative outweighs the positive almost 2 to 1, but it’s still an interesting stat.

And this is where I do my famous bottom line routine and try to make sense out of these results.

Bottom Line: With the economy in chaos, a stimulus bill nobody can agree on or make sense of, a housing market that’s in shambles and chimpanzees on the loose, I really don’t think anyone’s sure what to make of their first quarter sales in 2009. The sweet thing is we’ll actually have verifiable results soon on ASICentral in our Research section under Industry Sales. Check back soon for results!

And here’s the visual results of this month’s poll:

–TeamGreenspan


 

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